I-China International Finance Securities muva nje ibike ukuthi i-globalI-Transceiver Yokubona Imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ngaphezu kwama-USD ayizigidigidi eziyi-10 ngo-2021, kanti imakethe yasekhaya ingaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-50. Ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa kwe-400GI-Transceiver Yokubonas ngezinga elikhulu kanye nokwanda okusheshayo kwevolumu engu-800GI-Transceiver YokubonaKulindeleke ukuthi kube nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo semikhiqizo ye-optical chip esheshayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokusho kwe-Omdia, isikhala semakethe sama-optical chips asetshenziswa ku-25G nangaphezulu.I-Transceiver Yokubonakulindeleke ukuthi inyuke isuka ku-USD 1.356 billion ngo-2019 iye ku-USD 4.340 billion ngo-2025, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esilinganiselwe saminyaka yonke esingamaphesenti angu-21.40.
Ukubheka ukukhula kwesidingo sama-optical chips kusukela esibikezelweni se-I-Transceiver Yokubona imboni.
I-LightCounting ibikezela ukuthi imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-transceiver ye-optical izokhula ngo-4.34% ngo-2023, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe esingu-11.43% kusukela ngo-2024 kuya ku-2027.
Ngokusho kwesikweletu se-CICC, usayizi wemakethe yomhlaba wonke wama-optical chips wokuxhumana kwe-optical ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuthi ube yi-yuan eyizigidigidi eziyi-14.67. Ubukhulu bemakethe bama-optical chips angu-2.5G, 10G, 25G nangaphezulu buyi-yuan eyizigidigidi eziyi-1.167, i-yuan eyizigidigidi eziyi-2.748, kanye ne-yuan eyizigidigidi eziyi-10.755 ngokulandelana. U-Omdia ubikezela ukuthi usayizi wemakethe jikelele wama-optical chips asetshenziselwa amamojula e-optical angu-25G nangaphezulu ngo-2021 uzoba yi-US dollar eyizigidigidi eziyi-1.913, noma cishe i-yuan eyizigidigidi eziyi-13.
Ngokusekelwe kule datha, kulinganiselwa ukuthi imakethe ye-optical chip yokuxhumana yomhlaba wonke izobalelwa ku-18-20% wemakethe ye-optical module ngo-2021. Usayizi wemakethe ye-optical chip ohambisanayo ubalwa ngokusekelwe ku-18% wemakethe ye-optical module ephansi kanye no-20% wemakethe ye-high-end.
Njengamanje, iningi lama-transceiver e-optical anesakhiwo somkhiqizo ovuthiwe asebenzisa isakhiwo seziteshi ezine se-PSM4 noma i-CWDM4. Ama-optical chips angu-10G nangaphansi alingana cishe nama-optical modules angu-1G, 10G, kanye no-40G. Ngokusho kwedatha yokubikezela ye-LightCounting, ukuthunyelwa kwama-optical modules e-1G, 10G, kanye no-40G azoqala ukwehla kusukela ngo-2023, okuholela ekwehleni kosayizi wemakethe kusuka kumadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-614 ngo-2022 kuya kumadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-150 ngo-2027. Uma kuthathwa u-18% njengesilinganiso, usayizi wemakethe yama-optical chip ahambisanayo kulindeleke ukuthi wehle kusuka kumadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-111 ngo-2022 kuya kumadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-27 ngo-2027.
Ukwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi yesikhungo sedatha kudlula uhlelo lwe-10G/40G CLOS oludala. Izinkampani eziningi ze-inthanethi zasekhaya zisebenza kusakhiwo se-25G/100G CLOS, kuyilapho izinkampani zaseNyakatho Melika zishintshela kusakhiwo senethiwekhi se-100G/400G CLOS kanye ne-800G esithuthukisiwe kakhulu. Amamojula we-digital optical asheshayo aphakathi kwe-100G-800G asebenzisa kakhulu ama-chip e-laser e-DFB kanye ne-EML, kanti izinga le-baud lingu-25G, 53G, 56G. Iningi lemikhiqizo ye-800G optical module esemakethe njengamanje isebenzisa isakhiwo se-8*100G futhi isebenzisa ama-chip optical ayisishiyagalombili e-56G EML PAM4.
Idatha yokubikezela ye-LightCounting ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamamojula e-optical asebenza ku-25G, 100G, 400G kanye ne-800G kuzoqhubeka nokukhula kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2027. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, usayizi wemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke kusuka ku-USD 4.450 billion kuya ku-USD 5 billion ngo-2022. Kuzoba yi-US$7.269 billion ngo-2027, okuyisilinganiso sokukhula konyaka esimangalisayo seminyaka emi-5 esingu-10.31%. Usayizi wemakethe ye-optical chip ohambisanayo kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule kusuka ku-US$890 million kuya ku-US$1.453 billion.
Okungenantamboukudonsa emuva Isidingo se-10G sizinzile, isidingo se-25G siyakhula
Kusukela ngoNovemba 2022, ingqalasizinda ye-5G yaseShayina isifinyelele ingqophamlando, njengoba iziteshi zesisekelo eziyizigidi ezingu-2.287 zithunyelwe ezweni lonke. Nakuba izinga lokukhula kokwakhiwa kweziteshi zesisekelo liye lehla, idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kokungena kwe-5G kanye nokucebisa izinhlelo zokusebenza, isidingo sokwandiswa kwamanethiwekhi e-midhaul angenantambo kanye ne-backhaul siyakhula. Nakuba ukuthunyelwa kwamamojula e-optical e-10G kanye ne-25G emhlabeni wonke kuye kwehla kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2027, kulindeleke ukuthi usayizi wemakethe wamamojula e-optical angenantambo uzothuthuka ngo-2026, lapho amamojula e-optical angaphezu kwe-50G ezoqala ukuthunyelwa ngamaqoqo. Ochwepheshe bemboni bakholelwa ukuthi amamojula e-optical angu-50G kanye no-100G angase angaqhubeki nokubuyela emuva kwemakethe ye-5G fronthaul kuze kube ngu-2026, kuyilapho amamojula e-optical angu-25G nangaphezulu kwe-5G fronthaul kulindeleke ukuthi azinze ku-$420 million phakathi kuka-2023 no-2025. Njengoba isidingo sethrafikhi ye-5G siqhubeka nokukhula, ukuthunyelwa kwama-transceivers e-optical angu-5G aphakathi nendawo kanye ne-10G kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kusuka kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.1 ngo-2022 kuya kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-3.06 ngo-2027, nge-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu engu-7.68%. Isidingo semakethe esikhulayo kulindeleke ukuthi sizinzise imakethe ye-10G kanye nangaphansi kwemakethe ye-optical module ku-$90 million, kanti imakethe ye-optical chip ehambisanayo ilinganiselwa ku-$18.1 million. Emakethe ephakathi nendawo kanye ne-backhaul, isidingo samamojula e-optical angu-25G, 100G, kanye ne-200G kulindeleke ukuthi silondoloze ukukhula okusheshayo kusukela ngo-2023, kanti usayizi wemakethe wamamojula e-optical angu-25G nangaphezulu kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke kusuka ku-US$103 million ngo-2022 kuya ku-US$171 million ngo-2027. Izinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe lingu-10.73%. Imakethe ye-optical chip ehambisanayo kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule kusuka cishe ku-$21 million kuya ku-$34 million.
Isidingo se-10G PON sokufinyelela ngentambo siyaqhubeka nokukhula
Uhlelo lwe-14 lweminyaka emihlanu lwaseShayina embonini ye-infocomm lubeka imigomo emikhulu yengqalasizinda yedijithali yezwe. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, uhulumeni uhlela ukufaka inethiwekhi ye-gigabit fiber optic ukuze kusheshiswe ukwakhiwa “kwamadolobha e-gigabit” futhi kwandiswe ukumbozwa kwamanethiwekhi e-gigabit ezweni lonke. Ekupheleni kuka-2022, izinkampani ezintathu eziyisisekelo zokuxhumana zilindele ukuthi inani eliphelele labasebenzisi abasebenzisa i-inthanethi ebanzi lifinyelele ku-590 million. Phakathi kwazo, izinga lokufinyelela le-100Mbps nangaphezulu lalingu-554 million, ukwanda kwezigidi ezingu-55.13 ngaphezu konyaka odlule. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inani labasebenzisi abasebenzisa i-inthanethi abanesilinganiso se-1000 Mbps nangaphezulu lifinyelele ku-917.5 million, ukwanda kwezigidi ezingu-57.16 ngaphezu konyaka odlule. Naphezu kwalezi ntuthuko, kusenendawo yokuthuthuka, njengoba ukungena kwababhalisile be-Gigabit kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngu-15.6% kuphela ekupheleni kuka-2022. Ngenxa yalokhu, uhulumeni ukhuthaza ukwakhiwa kwamanethiwekhi e-10G-PON emadolobheni nasezindaweni ezibalulekile. edolobheni, egxile ekwandiseni ukumbozwa. NgoDisemba 2022, inani lamachweba e-10G PON anamakhono esevisi yenethiwekhi ye-Gigabit lizofinyelela ku-15.23 million, limboze imizi engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-500 ezweni lonke. Lokhu kwenza izinga lenethiwekhi ye-gigabit yaseShayina kanye nezinga lokumbozwa libe phakathi kweziphezulu kakhulu emhlabeni. Uma sibheka phambili, imakethe ye-PON izoqhubeka nokuthuthuka, futhi i-LightCounting ibikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-I-PONAma-transceivers e-optical angaphansi kwe-10G azokwehla kusukela ngo-2022. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwe-10G PON kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngokushesha, kufinyelele amayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-26.9 ngo-2022 kanye namayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-73 ngo-2027, nge-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu engu-22.07%. Nakuba usayizi wemakethe wamamojula e-optical e-10G uzokwehla kusukela esicongweni sawo ngo-2022, imakethe yama-chip e-optical ehambisanayo nayo izokwehla kusukela ku-$141.4 million kuya ku-$57 million. Uma sibheka phambili, i-25G PON kanye ne-50G PON kulindeleke ukuthi zifinyelele ekusetshenzisweni kwezinga elincane ngo-2024, kulandelwe ukuthunyelwa kwezinga elikhulu eminyakeni elandelayo. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi usayizi wemakethe wamamojula e-optical e-PON angu-25G nangaphezulu uzodlula amadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingama-200 ngo-2025, kanti imakethe yama-chip e-optical ehambisanayo izofinyelela amadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingama-40. Sekukonke, ingqalasizinda yedijithali yaseShayina izoqhubeka nokukhula nokuthuthuka eminyakeni ezayo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-22-2023