I-China International Finance Securities isanda kubika ukuthi umhlaba jikeleleI-Optical Transceiver imakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ngaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyi-10 zama-USD ngo-2021, kanti imakethe yasekhaya ibalwa ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-50.Ngo-2022, ukuthunyelwa kwe-400GI-Optical Transceivers ngesilinganiso esikhulu kanye nokwanda okusheshayo komthamo we-800GI-Optical Transceivers kulindeleke, kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo semikhiqizo ye-optical chip enesivinini esikhulu.Ukwengeza, ngokusho kuka-Omdia, indawo yemakethe yama-chips optical asetshenziswa ku-25G nangaphezulu kwesilinganisoI-Optical Transceivers kulindeleke ukuthi yenyuke isuka ku-USD 1.356 billion ngo-2019 iye ku-USD 4.340 billion ngo-2025, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esilinganiselwe sonyaka esingamaphesenti angama-21.40.
Uma sibheka ukukhula kwesidingo sama-optical chips kusukela kwisibikezelo seI-Optical Transceiver imboni.
I-LightCounting ibikezela ukuthi imakethe ye-optical transceiver yomhlaba wonke izokhula ngo-4.34% ngo-2023, ngezinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiwe lika-11.43% ukusuka ngo-2024 kuya ku-2027.
Ngokwesikweletu se-CICC, usayizi wemakethe yomhlaba wonke yama-optical chips for optical communication ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuthi ube ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-14.67.Osayizi bemakethe be-2.5G, 10G, 25G nangaphezulu kwama-optical chips bangama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.167, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.748, nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-10.755 ngokulandelana kwawo.U-Omdia ubikezela ukuthi usayizi wemakethe jikelele wama-optical chips asetshenziselwa i-25G nangaphezulu kwamamojula optical ngo-2021 azoba ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.913, noma cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-13.
Ngokusekelwe kule datha, kulinganiselwa ukuthi imakethe ye-optical chip yezokuxhumana emhlabeni wonke izobalelwa ku-18-20% wemakethe ye-optical module ngo-2021. Usayizi wemakethe ye-optical optical ohambisanayo ubalwa ngokusekelwe ku-18% wemakethe ye-low-end optical module. kanye nama-20% emakethe esezingeni eliphezulu.
Njengamanje, iningi lama-transceivers optical anesakhiwo somkhiqizo ovuthiwe amukela isakhiwo seziteshi ezine se-PSM4 noma i-CWDM4.Ama-chip optical we-10G nangaphansi acishe afane ne-1G, 10G, kanye ne-40G yamamojula optical.Ngokusho kwedatha yesibikezelo se-LightCounting, ukuthunyelwa kwe-1G, 10G, kanye ne-40G amamojula we-digital optical optical kuzoqala ukwehla kusukela ngo-2023, okuholela ekwehleni kosayizi wemakethe kusuka ezigidini ezingama-614 zamadola aseMelika ngo-2022 kuya ezigidini eziyi-150 zamadola aseMelika ngo-2027. Ngokuthatha u-18% njengengxenye, usayizi wemakethe ye-optical chip ohambisanayo kulindeleke ukuthi wehle usuka ku-US$111 million ngo-2022 uya ku-US$27 million ngo-2027.
Isakhiwo senethiwekhi yesikhungo sedatha sidlula uhlelo oludala lwe-10G/40G CLOS.Izinkampani eziningi ze-inthanethi ezifuywayo zisebenza ku-architecture ye-25G/100G CLOS, kuyilapho izinkampani zaseNyakatho Melika zishintshela ku-100G/400G CLOS nezakhiwo zenethiwekhi ze-800G ezithuthuke kakhulu.Amamojula we-digital optical esivinini esikhulu kububanzi be-100G-800G ikakhulukazi asebenzisa ama-laser chips e-DFB ne-EML, kanti izinga le-baud ngu-25G, 53G, 56G.Iningi lemikhiqizo ye-800G optical module okwamanje emakethe yamukela ukwakheka kwe-8 * 100G futhi isebenzisa ama-chips optical angama-56G EML PAM4 ayisishiyagalombili.
Idatha yesibikezelo se-LightCounting ibonisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamamojula we-optical asebenza ku-25G, 100G, 400G kanye ne-800G kuzoqhubeka nokukhula kusuka ku-2023 kuya ku-2027. Ngalesi sikhathi, usayizi wemakethe kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke usuka ku-USD 4.450 billion ukuya ku-USD 5 billion ngo-2022. Kuzoba yi-US $ 7.269 billion ngo-2027, izinga lokukhula elimangalisayo leminyaka emi-5 le-10.31%.Usayizi wemakethe ye-optical chip ohambelana nawo kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule usuka ku-US $890 million uye US$1.453 billion.
Okungenantamboukubuyela emuva Isidingo se-10G sizinzile, isidingo se-25G siyakhula
Kusukela ngoNovemba 2022, ingqalasizinda ye-5G yase-China isifinyelele ingqophamlando, njengoba iziteshi eziyisisekelo eziyizigidi ezingu-2.287 zisatshalaliswa ezweni lonke.Nakuba izinga lokukhula lokwakhiwa kwesiteshi sehlile, idatha ibonisa ukuthi ngokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kokungena kwe-5G kanye nokunothiswa kwezinhlelo zokusebenza, isidingo sokunwetshwa kwe-wireless midhaul kanye namanethiwekhi we-backhaul siyakhula.Nakuba ukuthunyelwa komhlaba wonke kwe-10G kanye ne-25G optical module kuye kwehla kusukela ku-2022 kuya ku-2027, kulindeleke ukuthi usayizi wemakethe wamamojula we-wireless fronthaul optical uzothuthuka ngo-2026, lapho amamojula optical angaphezu kuka-50G azoqala ukuthunyelwa ngamaqoqo.Ochwepheshe bezimboni bakholelwa ukuthi amamojula we-50G kanye ne-100G optical angeke aqhubekisele phambili ukuphindaphinda kwemakethe ye-5G fronthaul kuze kube ngu-2026, kuyilapho i-25G nangaphezulu kwe-5G fronthaul modules optical kulindeleke ukuthi izinze ku-$ 420 million phakathi kuka-2023 no-2025. Njengoba isidingo sethrafikhi ye-5G siqhubeka ukukhula, ukuthunyelwa kwe-5G mid-haul kanye ne-10G optical transceivers kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kusuka kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.1 ngo-2022 kuya kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-3.06 ngo-2027, nge-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-7.68%.Isidingo semakethe esikhulayo kulindeleke ukuthi sizinze imakethe ye-10G nangaphansi kwe-optical module ku-$ 90 million, futhi imakethe ye-optical chip ehambisanayo ilinganiselwa cishe ku-$ 18.1 million.Emakethe emaphakathi ne-backhaul, isidingo samamojula we-25G, 100G, kanye ne-200G optical kulindeleke ukuthi silondoloze ukukhula okusheshayo kusukela ngo-2023, futhi usayizi wemakethe we-25G nangaphezulu kwamamojula optical optical aphakathi nendawo kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke asuka ku-US $ 103 million ngo-2022. kuya ku-US$171 million ngo-2027. Izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka liyi-10.73%.Imakethe ye-optical chip ehambelana nayo kulindeleke ukuthi inwebe isuka cishe ezigidini ezingama- $21 iye ku- $34 wezigidi.
Isidingo sokufinyelela ngezintambo kwe-10G PON siyaqhubeka sikhula
Uhlelo lweminyaka eyi-14 lwaseShayina Lweminyaka Emihlanu lwemboni ye-infocomm lubeka imigomo efiselekayo yengqalasizinda yedijithali yezwe.Ngalesi sikhathi, uhulumeni uhlela ukuhambisa inethiwekhi ye-gigabit fiber optic ukusheshisa ukwakhiwa "kwamadolobha e-gigabit" futhi andise ukumbozwa kwamanethiwekhi e-gigabit ezweni lonke.Ekupheleni kuka-2022, izinkampani ezintathu eziyisisekelo zokuxhumana zilindele ukuthi inani eliphelele labasebenzisi bokufinyelela kwe-inthanethi ye-broadband lifinyelele ezigidini ezingama-590.Phakathi kwazo, izinga lokufinyelela lika-100Mbps nangaphezulu laliyizigidi ezingu-554, okuwukunyuka kwezigidi ezingu-55.13 ngonyaka odlule.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inani labasebenzisi bokufinyelela ngezinga le-1000 Mbps nangaphezulu lifinyelele ezigidini ezingu-917.5, ukwanda kwezigidi ezingu-57.16 ngaphezu konyaka odlule.Naphezu kwalezi ntuthuko, sisekhona indawo yokwenza ngcono, njengoba ukungena kwababhalisile be-Gigabit kulindeleke ukuthi kube kuphela u-15.6% ekupheleni kuka-2022. Kuze kube manje, uhulumeni ukhuthaza ukwakhiwa kwamanethiwekhi e-10G-PON emadolobheni nasezindaweni ezibalulekile.idolobha, egxile ekwandiseni ukusabalala.NgoDisemba 2022, inani lamachweba we-10G PON namandla wesevisi yenethiwekhi ye-Gigabit lizofinyelela ezigidini ezingu-15.23, okuhlanganisa amakhaya angaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-500 ezweni lonke.Lokhu kwenza isikali senethiwekhi yegigabit yaseChina nezinga lokukhava libe phakathi kweziphakeme kakhulu emhlabeni.Uma ubheka phambili, imakethe ye-PON izoqhubeka nokuthuthuka, futhi i-LightCounting ibikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kweI-PONama-transceivers optical angaphansi kwe-10G azokwehla kusukela ku-2022. Ngokuphambene, ukuthunyelwa kwe-10G PON kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngokushesha, kufinyelele kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-26.9 ku-2022 kanye namayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-73 ku-2027, nge-CAGR yeminyaka emihlanu ye-22.07%.Yize usayizi wemakethe wamamojula we-10G optical uzokwehla ukusuka phezulu ngo-2022, imakethe ye-optical chip ehambisana nayo izokwehla isuka ku-US$141.4 million iye ku-US$57 million.Uma ubheka phambili, i-25G PON kanye ne-50G PON kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ukusetshenziswa kwezinga elincane ngo-2024, kulandelwa ukuthunyelwa ngezinga elikhulu eminyakeni elandelayo.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi usayizi wemakethe wama-25G nangaphezulu amamojula we-PON optical uzodlula izigidi ezingama-200 zamadola aseMelika ngo-2025, futhi imakethe ye-optical chip ehambisanayo izofinyelela ezigidini ezingama-40 zamadola aseMelika.Sekukonke, ingqalasizinda yedijithali yaseChina izoqhubeka nokukhula futhi ithuthuke eminyakeni ezayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-22-2023